What the 2024 election polls got right and wrong
The Accuracy of Polls in the 2024 Presidential Election: A Review
Nearly a month has passed since election day, when over 150 million people across the country voted in the presidential race. With nearly all ballots counted, we have a clearer picture of the accuracy of the polls, both national and battleground. According to the Pew Research Center, this year’s national polls turned in one of the best performances in presidential polling in decades. But what did those polls get right, and where did they miss the mark?
What the Polls Got Right
NBC News Senior Political Editor Mark Murray joins us to discuss the accuracy of the polls. "The polls got more right than they ended up getting wrong," Murray notes. The final NBC News poll had President-elect Trump and Vice President Harris in a dead heat race, right up until election day. Like many other polls, it showed a tight race between the two candidates. The Real Clear Average nationally were in the same ballpark, with Trump winning slightly more and Harris winning slightly less. Given the past misses in presidential elections, particularly in 2020, this was a much better performance for the polls.
The polls also accurately captured the political atmosphere that shaped the contest. "President Biden was unpopular," Murray notes. "A super majority of the country thought that the nation was headed in the wrong direction." These were some of the big, broad stories that the polls were telling before the election, and that turned out to be the case.
What the Polls Got Wrong
However, the polls did get some things wrong. "Donald Trump’s support was a little understated, certainly not as what we ended up seeing in 2020 and 2016," Murray notes. Trump ended up outperforming his polls. The biggest miss, Murray suggests, was the size of the overall gender gap. The polls predicted a historic gender gap, but what turned out to be was almost the same gender gap that we’ve seen in past presidential contests in 2016 and 2020.
What Factors Led to the Perception that Polls Were Wrong
So, what led to the perception that polls were wrong? Murray notes that the polls underestimated the size of the gender gap, and overestimated the extent to which voters were turned off by Trump’s politics. "The NBC News exit poll found 73% of voters saying that they were either angry or dissatisfied with the country’s direction," Murray notes. "Mr. Trump swept the battleground states, winning all seven. This persistent dissatisfaction was key in the final result."
What’s Next for Poll Gurus Like Murray?
So, what will poll gurus like Murray do differently in the next round of election polling? "One of the big lessons that we were telling at NBC News throughout this entire cycle was that polls aren’t precise instruments," Murray notes. "They’re not guaranteed to give you a precise result." The polls did tell us about the atmosphere, however, and that’s where they got it right.
In the next round of election polling, Murray and his team will focus on refining their methodology to capture the nuances of voter opinion. "We’ll look at the data more carefully, and try to drill down on the reasons why voters are making their choices," Murray notes. With the lessons learned from the 2024 election, poll gurus like Murray will strive to provide a more accurate picture of voter sentiment in the next cycle.
